200-Day Trend
Is today's apple price above its usual level?
An apple costs $6 at the end of our fictional year. Compare that price with the average of the last 200 daily prices. The bull and bear use the same apple stall throughout these guides.
Start with a familiar average
Two recorded apple prices, $2 and $4, have an average of $3. Add both prices and divide by two. Every recorded price counts; two endpoints alone cannot tell you the average of a whole year.
Use a longer price record
A 200-day simple moving average, or SMA, does the same thing with 200 daily apple prices: add them, then divide by 200. Tomorrow, the oldest price drops out and the new price joins.
Compare today's price
At year end, the apple price is $6 and its 200-day average is about $2. The price is above the average. That comparison gives a Yes, without predicting tomorrow's price.
Example
One year at the apple stall
Compare the orange apple-price line with the dashed blue average. The blue line follows the last 200 daily prices, giving today's price a longer-term reference.
- Apple price
- 200-day SMA
At the end of the year: apple price $6, 200-day average about $2. Today's price is above its longer-term average. The exact average uses all 200 daily prices, rather than just the first and last price.
Prices are whole dollars. Averages, scores and returns are shown as approximate whole numbers; MACD gaps use cents. The lines and rule comparisons use the full calculation. A moving average begins only when enough days are recorded.
What the lines mean
Orange is the price of one apple. Dashed blue is the average of the last 200 daily prices. The average starts on day 200 because it needs 200 observations, even though the display covers one year.
200-Day Trend
This site uses the following calculation to check whether this indicator signals a Bitcoin bull run. Each Yes adds one point to the Bull Run Score, out of five.
Yes when the latest BTC/USD price is above its 200-day simple moving average. Equal to or below is No when both inputs are available.
Latest price > SMA200
What this cannot tell you
A price above its average can fall again. The average describes recorded prices and reacts slowly to a sudden change.
An indicator needs enough recorded observations before it can be evaluated. Missing inputs mean unavailable, not No.
These are independent rules. They can disagree, and a Yes is not a forecast or a recommendation.
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