Historic Bull Run Score: How to Read the Replay
What happens when today's five Bull Run Score rules are applied to years of Bitcoin closes?
The historic chart runs the same five indicator rules used for today's Bull Run Score over a dated series of Bitcoin daily closes. It shows how many rules passed on each eligible day and how those readings varied over time.
Start with five rules
For each historical daily close, the chart evaluates the same 200-day trend, golden cross, RSI momentum, MACD trend, and 30-day momentum rules used on The Charts today. A rule contributes one point when its condition is met. The calculations use the close recorded for that date and only score a day when all five inputs are available.
Count the daily signals
The five Yes-or-No checks add up to a daily total from 0/5 to 5/5. Choose Daily to inspect each available day. Choose Monthly Average to see the mean of the scored daily totals in each calendar month; it is not simply that month's final daily score. Early dates without enough history for every rule remain unscored.
Compare broad cycle eras
Shaded bands mark the broad bull-run eras used by the site's timeline. They help orient the comparison but are independent of the score calculation: the five rule results alone determine each daily score. Similarities or differences seen in hindsight do not establish that the rules forecasted those eras.
A daily score, then a monthly mean
- Monthly mean daily score
This series uses the same historical daily scores as the chart page. Each monthly point averages the available scored days in that month; it can smooth over brief daily highs and lows.
How one daily total is formed
Illustrative example only: three rules pass and two do not. The table does not describe a particular historical date.
| Indicator rule | Example result | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 200-Day Trend | Yes | 1 |
| Golden Cross | Yes | 1 |
| RSI Momentum | Yes | 1 |
| MACD Trend | No | 0 |
| 30-Day Momentum | No | 0 |
| Illustrative daily total | 3/5 | |
The plotted history is descriptive. A higher score does not guarantee future price gains.
What the score means
A score records how many of the five technical conditions were true for one eligible daily close. It summarizes those conditions; it does not label a date as a bull market or measure a probability.
The same five checks as today
Each rule adds one point when it passes. The historic chart applies these current definitions to past daily data so readers can compare the resulting technical readings across time.
Daily score = number of passing rules, from 0 to 5
What this replay cannot tell you
The replay is retrospective, and the broad era bands are visual context. It does not prove that the rules predict future bull runs, explain why prices moved, or establish that any rule is a profitable strategy. Missing early inputs are unscored rather than treated as No.
Historical prices are sourced from Explore21 Charts. The series uses its stored Bitstamp BTC/USD daily candles and the last trade of each completed UTC day. The five rule calculations and score aggregation are provided by The Bitcoin Bull Run.
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